ad verecundiam

conformity bias

Have you noticed that we are social creatures who devote a lot of our time to thinking about social ranking? And that a by-product of this obsession is a tendency to blindly trust the claims and ideas of people who rank…

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Unpredictability Ignorance

It’s not so easy to be active in the stock market. Because when people I meet learn that I make my money predominantly from the abundant stock market, they—more often than not—flood me with questions on my prediction of the future trends and…

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Wanna be a trillionaire?

Sounds great, doesn’t it? And you would be the first on this planet, provided that you measure your wealth in the current USD, since I am quite certain that there would already be existent trillionaires when measured in Vietnamese Dong or Indonesian Rupiah. Trillions are flung around in the news nowadays to…

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Others are just like me

We have the tendency to overestimate the degree to which others agree with us; therein making this—tendency—just another of those predictable patterns of thought and behavior that lead us to draw incorrect conclusions. Psychologists call this the False Consensus Bias. Let me ask you: “Is agreeing…

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The good ol’ gut feeling

We sometimes tend to think that ideas and feelings arising from our intuition are essentially superior to those achieved by reason and logic. As such, intuition—the good old “gut feeling”—has come to be idealized as the Noble Savage of the mind, fearlessly cutting through…

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Don’t get framed by …

… the Framing Bias.  This is another beautiful mental shortcut that we use to solve common problems. Although this heuristic speeds up processing in our brain, it occasionally makes us think so fast that we miss what is important. When heuristics work, they…

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Don’t trust yourself

Have you ever been convinced that you could predict how well you would perform in any stock market situation? If the answer is yes, then you are suffering from the Dunning-Kruger Effect. What that effect literally means is that you are so bad at a…

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Correction

In my earlier blog post, I asked which animal kills more people? Despite that the Hippopotamus emerged victorious; in truth, the animal that creates by far the greatest havoc to humankind is the Black Swan. How so? Because the most influential and devastating events in history…

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