The law of small numbers

probably we desire the impossible

In my previous post I shared a few thoughts on probabilities and statistics.  I wrote about disregarding probabilities in decision making, ignoring small probabilities and not over-weighting small probabilities. A tough act to follow.  I am totally guilty of failing…

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The Backfire Effect

We all have a preferential set of intuitions, feelings, and ideas. Less poetically characterized by the term “bias”. These little quirks in our thinking pose a challenge to our ability to weigh evidence accurately to arrive at truth.  Bias is…

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Why do we misbehave so often?

Why do you misbehave?

According to economists, we should all be cold, clear-eyed spenders who always choose what would benefit us the most economically. In their economists’ world, we are all as emotionless, passionless, and predictable as the Vulcan Mr. Spock in Star Trek, since we are supposedly…

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My Dopamine determines risks of mine

dopamine molecule

Have you ever wondered why you can become revved up and an exuberant risk taker, when flying high, or hesitant and risk-adverse, when cowering from your losses in the stock market? We have the impression that it is our deliberative mind that makes the most important decisions in…

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