The Seer-Sucker Illusion

seer-sucker illusion

“Imagine you pick 1 million random people from around the world every day,” said Toby McDade, chief investment officer of Momentum Fee Capital Management. “Some days, 51% would be in a good mood, 49% in a bad mood.  The next…

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Who can I blame for this?

Here is a bit of philosophy to assist in rapidly finding someone (else) to blame : “Huey, Dewey and Louie.  You stand accused of a grievous crime.  What do you have to say for yourselves?” “Yes, I did it,” said Huey.  “But it…

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Hot-cold-empathy gap

Have you ever asked yourself this: How can I control myself when I feel the irresistible need to break my rules about how to invest in the stock market? That question pertains to the “hot-cold-empathy gap”, where we say to ourselves in a calm…

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The Curse of Knowledge

knowledge vs wisdom

Yes, that’s right, you have read the header correctly. Because if you know something, you can’t appreciate what it’s like not to know it. And this is when better-informed people encounter problems thinking about problems from the perspective of their less-informed…

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Neglect of prior base rates effect

tomorrow starts now; start an ETF savings plan

This is the tendency to fail to incorporate prior known probabilities which are pertinent to the decision at hand. Caution: Don’t read on if you are 40 years of age and above! Here’s an interesting question for the rest of you: Why aren’t more young people…

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My Dopamine determines risks of mine

dopamine molecule

Have you ever wondered why you can become revved up and an exuberant risk taker, when flying high, or hesitant and risk-adverse, when cowering from your losses in the stock market? We have the impression that it is our deliberative mind that makes the most important decisions in…

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ad verecundiam

conformity bias

Have you noticed that we are social creatures who devote a lot of our time to thinking about social ranking? And that a by-product of this obsession is a tendency to blindly trust the claims and ideas of people who rank…

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