I initially wanted to put off writing about this fallacy, but I cannot avoid it. Psychologists use this term to describe the decision to ignore dangerous or negative information by “burying” one’s head in the sand—like an ostrich—and hoping it would disappear. The…
Oops! Despite trying to understand more than 60 cognitive biases by writing about them, I just realized that I have yet to share anything about the “classic”—the Sunk Cost Fallacy. And although I have written about its sister biases Loss and Regret Aversion, they alone leave gaps…
…but before we do that, allow me to elaborate a bit on it. Regression to the Mean (RTM) is the tendency for trends to flip with the passage of time; it’s nature’s way of levelling the playing field. Most things on Earth revert to…
…is themselves. That’s right, the single largest risk to investors is themselves. By that, I, of course, mean the influence of human emotion and psychology in decision making. It seems quite clear to me that humans are uniquely wired incorrectly for long-term…
Recently there has been a lively discussion among the Singapore Financial Blogger Scene about ‘Net Worth’ and how it should/could/may be computed (here, here, and here). This showed me how imperfect and susceptible to bias we all are. We are…
Do you believe in a just world? Most of us do. Simply because we assume that bad things will befall bad people, and good things, to good people. The bad news is that it doesn’t always play out that way and also that the world…
Do you know what is the central element of good decision-making? It is actually one’s ability to manage delay. Yes, our ability to think about delay is a central part of the human condition and it’s a gift, a tool that we can—and should—use to examine…
Have you ever had—while driving—that extraordinary experience where anyone driving slower than you is an idiot, while anyone driving faster is a maniac? That, my dear reader, is an example of the Correspondence Bias in full-blown action. Generally, this bias refers to the tendency…
A few weeks ago, I wrote herewithin about a natural phenomenon: When things go well, we tend to ascribe our success to our abilities—our disposition. But when they go wrong, we tend to blame external factors—our situation. Finished. Done. Quick conclusion. Move on. But wait…
In psychology, there is the term “Information Bias” which is the tendency to seek information when it doesn’t affect our actions. Nevertheless, more information isn’t always better. The instinctual shortcut that we take when we have “too much information” is to…