Chatting with one of you the other day over a kopi C (that’s coffee with evaporated milk for my dear non-Singaporean readers) made me realize that you might have gained the wrong perception of me. You might believe that due…
In my last post I mused over Forecasts and those guys who come up with them. In my little research I came across so many noteworthy facts and statements on that subject that I decided to collate them in a…
Two recent events triggered me to do a bit of research. My son – having started Secondary Level 4 a few days back – asked me which job would be the best and whether he should target the Junior College…
… that there is no certainty (ok, I admit death is the only thing we can know with any certainty, but my intention is not to write about the end here, I have done that before and it didn’t end…
Yaaawwnn. The stock markets in the last few weeks have been rather boring and uneventful. The US-market (measured by the S&P 500) has even entered an unusually long period of volatility contraction. The daily market moves up a bit and…
The desire to feel like we’re in control seems to be a very basic human need. Are you in control? Do you like to control your environment? Well? Were you successful in that endeavour? C’mon, be honest. Because—Control—is an illusion! Let me give you an example…
In my previous post I shared a few thoughts on probabilities and statistics. I wrote about disregarding probabilities in decision making, ignoring small probabilities and not over-weighting small probabilities. A tough act to follow. I am totally guilty of failing…
Gambler’s fallacy is a term we often hear. What is it exactly and how does it affect what you do with your money? It is the belief that future events will be shaped by past events, even when the two…
…but before we do that, allow me to elaborate a bit on it. Regression to the Mean (RTM) is the tendency for trends to flip with the passage of time; it’s nature’s way of levelling the playing field. Most things on Earth revert to…
At the beginning of each year, there’re many pundits, experts, self-proclaimed gurus, and other suspicious characters who’d like to sell you stuff predicting the directions of the Stock Markets. As I personally have ample years of experience in the Stock Markets…