In my previous post I shared a few thoughts on probabilities and statistics. I wrote about disregarding probabilities in decision making, ignoring small probabilities and not over-weighting small probabilities. A tough act to follow. I am totally guilty of failing…
At the end of part 1 of this blog post we parted with the open question: How were most of these investment legends able to be wrong more often than they were right and still make incredible profits? To analyze…
Oops, did you click this post by accident? Or did you conscientiously click it because you do consider yourself a “serious investor” – I mean – serious investor (no irony intended)? I do apologize if my header created any sense…
I have been fooled. I am convinced. It was about one year back when I was sourcing for a new family TV set. Off I go to one of those notorious big (presumably) discount retailers. After I mentioned that I…
I happened to drop by Orchard Road a few days back. It was a good opportunity for chilling out at a cafe and screening the surroundings for some beautiful …, well, for some beautiful social study opportunities. And there were…
Busy schedules and weekly routines have a tendency to put my brain on autopilot and I lose sight of the important things in life. Some of life’s essential truths need repeating. So, I’d better write them down: MY SELF-WORTH…
I initially wanted to put off writing about this fallacy, but I cannot avoid it. Psychologists use this term to describe the decision to ignore dangerous or negative information by “burying” one’s head in the sand—like an ostrich—and hoping it would disappear. The…
At the beginning of each year, there’re many pundits, experts, self-proclaimed gurus, and other suspicious characters who’d like to sell you stuff predicting the directions of the Stock Markets. As I personally have ample years of experience in the Stock Markets…
It’s that time of the year again, when avalanches of New Year’s resolutions are launched with idealistic plans for drastic self-improvement in 2016. We resolve to quit drinking, smoking, or both. We resolve to help others and to spend more time with our friends and…
Recently there has been a lively discussion among the Singapore Financial Blogger Scene about ‘Net Worth’ and how it should/could/may be computed (here, here, and here). This showed me how imperfect and susceptible to bias we all are. We are…