The law of small numbers

probably we desire the impossible

In my previous post I shared a few thoughts on probabilities and statistics.  I wrote about disregarding probabilities in decision making, ignoring small probabilities and not over-weighting small probabilities. A tough act to follow.  I am totally guilty of failing…

Continue reading

Do you do Selfies?

that is me

I happened to drop by Orchard Road a few days back.  It was a good opportunity for chilling out at a cafe and screening the surroundings for some beautiful …, well, for some beautiful social study opportunities.  And there were…

Continue reading

The Ostrich Effect

Learning how to adapt to changes

I initially wanted to put off writing about this fallacy, but I cannot avoid it.  Psychologists use this term to describe the decision to ignore dangerous or negative information by “burying” one’s head in the sand—like an ostrich—and hoping it would disappear. The…

Continue reading

It’s that time of the year again

Planning Fallacy

It’s that time of the year again, when avalanches of New Year’s resolutions are launched with idealistic plans for drastic self-improvement in 2016. We resolve to quit drinking, smoking, or both.  We resolve to help others and to spend more time with our friends and…

Continue reading